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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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