A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
